Planning for AGI
Understanding a Pivotal Moment in History
We are living at the threshold of a transformation that many compare to the invention of the printing press or the harnessing of electricity. Yet the arrival of AGI—the emergence of machines with general-purpose intelligence equal to or surpassing that of humans—may unfold with far greater speed and consequence. As one expert recently observed, “AGI will be so transformative that predictions are likely already based on a flawed understanding of the future.” In other words, we may not be ready—not just technologically or politically, but philosophically and morally—for the changes that lie ahead.
This series is an opportunity to pause, to ask the hard questions, and to engage with both curiosity and concern. Our aim is not to declare what the future will be, but to help shape what it could be, by bringing together a diversity of perspectives, lived experiences, and values.
What is Artificial General Intelligence?
This essay was generated from 15 sources I’ve opted to include in a NotebookLM “notebook” to support the production of our Planning for AGI series.
Before we can plan for AGI, we must understand what it is—and what it is not.
AGI is not merely a more powerful version of the AI tools we use today. Current AI—also known as “narrow” or “weak” AI—excels at specific tasks: playing chess, transcribing speech, writing emails, recommending products. But it lacks generality. It cannot reason across domains, reflect on its own goals, or apply its knowledge flexibly the way humans can.
AGI, by contrast, refers to an artificial system with human-level cognitive abilities and beyond—capable of understanding, learning, and performing a wide range of intellectual tasks without needing to be retrained for each new one. Definitions vary, but common elements include:
“Superhuman intelligence that can perform well at various tasks,” according to one prominent analysis.
“Machines with flexible reasoning, creativity, and adaptability,” as described in OpenAI’s research forecast.
A system that can “do pretty much any cognitive task that humans can do”—and potentially more.
In short, AGI would not be just another tool. It would be a new kind of partner—or competitor—in shaping the human story.
This “Audio Overview” generated by NotebookLM condenses the main points made by 15 sources into a 13-minute podcast.
When Might AGI Arrive?
The timeline for AGI’s development is the subject of active debate—and accelerating estimates.
A recent survey of scientists revealed that many now expect AGI before 2040, trimming decades off previous predictions.
A 2023 study of over 2,700 AI researchers suggested a high probability of AGI being achieved by 2040 at the latest.
Some leading technologists, such as Sam Altman (OpenAI) and Dario Amodei (Anthropic), have voiced optimism—or concern—that AGI could emerge as early as 2025 or 2026.
Others remain cautious. Microsoft’s Krishnan warns that unless we clearly define what AGI means and what changes we expect, current speculation risks confusion.
Earlier forecasts, such as the 2022 global AI expert survey, gave a 50% chance of AGI by 2061. But the consensus is shifting quickly.
This divergence in timelines underscores why thoughtful, early engagement is essential. If AGI arrives sooner than expected, we must not be caught unprepared. If it arrives later, the process of planning will still enrich our public imagination and technological stewardship.
The Impact of AGI
The advent of AGI could usher in a golden era—or a period of profound disruption. Perhaps both. We owe it to ourselves and future generations to consider the full spectrum of possibilities:
🌍 Optimistic Visions
AGI could revolutionize healthcare, education, and scientific research, dramatically accelerating innovation.
It could help solve intractable problems such as climate modeling, disease eradication, and global resource distribution.
It may empower humanity to reach new heights of creativity, collaboration, and discovery.
⚠️ Sobering Concerns
AGI could destabilize economies, displace human workers, and amplify social inequalities.
There are serious risks related to misuse, loss of control, and misalignment with human values.
A “winner-takes-all” dynamic could emerge, where the first to develop AGI holds disproportionate power, similar to the arms race of the nuclear era.
As one analysis warns: “If AGI were to happen today, we’d be woefully unprepared.”
The future is not fixed—but it will be shaped by the decisions we make today.
Why This Moment Matters
To grasp the magnitude of what’s ahead, it helps to look back. Humanity has passed through other transformative ages—the agricultural revolution, the industrial revolution, the digital age. Each redefined how we live, work, and relate to one another. AGI has the potential to compress the scale and pace of such change into a single generation.
Unlike those earlier shifts, however, AGI introduces an intelligence that is not biological—and not necessarily bounded by human goals or lifespans.
AGI can be replicated instantly, distributed globally, and updated continuously.
It raises questions not just about progress, but about power, meaning, and control.
It challenges us to revisit what it means to be human—and how we might coexist with intelligence that is not our own.
In this sense, AGI is not just a technological event. It is a civilizational turning point.
Creating a Civic Space for Reflection and Responsibility
This series is not about forecasting alone. It’s about ownership, ethics, and agency. Our goal is to create an inclusive forum for reflection, grounded in:
Openness and humility: We recognize that no one has all the answers. That’s why we need each other.
Shared values: We are guided by principles of equity, democracy, and human dignity.
Informed urgency: The pace of AI development compels us to act with care, not panic.
Accessibility: We aim to make complex ideas understandable without dumbing them down.
Empowerment: AGI may be inevitable, but its consequences are not. Together, we can shape the outcome.
A Call to Thoughtful Participation
This is not just a conversation for experts. It is a dialogue for neighbors, teachers, artists, parents, technologists, and community leaders. The coming of AGI will affect us all—and we all have a role to play in shaping its impact.
Together, let’s rise to meet this moment with curiosity, courage, and care.
